According to the RealClearPolitics poll average, Florida remains a tight race, with President Obama holding a slim 1% lead. However, the reliability of this margin is questionable. The average still includes a CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll from late July, which shows Obama leading by 6%. Not only is this data outdated in such a close contest, but the +6% margin is unusually high compared to other polls since March 2012.
More recent polls, conducted in the past three weeks, show a different story—Mitt Romney leads in Florida by an average of 1.5%. This shift highlights a growing trend that could challenge the narrative of Florida as an Obama stronghold.
Iowa’s Polling Landscape Mirrors Florida
A similar situation is unfolding in Iowa. The only national poll conducted in August shows Romney ahead, but older polls are diluting his lead. Polls from Democratic-leaning organizations like Public Policy Polling (PPP) and We Ask America continue to show an advantage for Obama, with the PPP poll showing a +5% lead. However, this data is over three weeks old and raises credibility concerns, as PPP has consistently shown Obama leading by margins much larger than other pollsters.
Historically, PPP polls have skewed heavily in favor of Obama, with figures around +10%, while no other pollster reports a lead over 7%. Of the 16 total polls for Iowa, 13 come from organizations identified as Democratic pollsters. This raises questions about bias and whether these polls accurately reflect the current state of the race.
The Hidden Polling Reality in Iowa and Florida
The “dirty little secret” is that Romney has been either tied or leading in Iowa for some time. The media’s reliance on outdated polls, particularly those conducted by Democratic-leaning groups, obscures this fact. When older polls from six or eight weeks ago are averaged in, they dilute Romney’s recent gains and create the false impression that Obama still holds a significant lead.
The most recent Iowa poll shows Romney leading by 2%, but this is overshadowed by the inclusion of outdated data. The same is true for Florida, where Romney’s lead is also hidden by the media’s reliance on older polls.
As more accurate and current polling data emerges, it’s likely that both Florida and Iowa will be seen as states leaning toward Romney. The shift is already happening, but it’s being masked by old and questionable polling practices that favor the Democratic narrative.
Conclusion
Romney’s momentum in key battleground states like Florida and Iowa is becoming increasingly clear, despite the media’s reliance on outdated polls that paint a different picture. As more recent polls are considered, these states are likely to lean red, signaling a significant shift in the 2012 election landscape. The media’s inability to obscure this shift with older, Democratic-leaning polls will soon reveal a more accurate reflection of the political climate in these critical states.
